Forex Trading and Pricing Explained
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
I received the following question from one of my list members today:
"... you referred to the currency exchange cash market and the fact that this is basically a market between banks across countries. Does this mean that, for example, the EURO/USD exchange rate is set between the Federal Reserve and the ECB? Is that how a price is established without the benefit of any trading on any listed exchange anywhere else? T16BBhanks for the brief education on this particular point." - Stan Z.
The forex spot market is primarily an "interbank" market. That means the majority of the trading volume is done bank-to-bank such as between Citibank and Goldman Sachs, for example. This trading is generally done on behalf of banking customers such as multinational corporations, though the banks also trade with each other both to hedge their currency exposure and to take on trading positions.
This sort of market structure is the same as the one for most cash market government debt trading, such as that for US Treasury Bonds and the like. You can think of it like the over-the-counter market for stocks. Those trades don't go through an exchange, but are done directly broker-to-broker.
In both forex and fixed income there are big players like hedge funds that take part along with the commercial and investment banks. The world's central banks are also major participants at this level in their attempts to influence exchange rates (forex) and/or interest rates (fixed income).
The transaction sizes in the interbank market are large - generally $5 million and up. Obviously, the average individual trader is not going to be trading anywhere near that big. That's where the online brokers and forex dealers come in to play. They allow small traders to do transactions in significantly lower amounts. In fact, there is at least one which will do trades as small as $1.
Here is where some folks get a bit nervous. Many of these forex dealers actually act as market makers with their clientele. By that I mean they take the other side of the trades that are done by their customers. This is something which can sometimes happen in the stock market as well, especially with OTC stocks. The concern that folks have with this is the implied conflict of interest in terms of price execution that creates. Is a dealer who will be taking the other side of your trade going to be acting in your best interest when you put on a trade?
While it may be true that some unscrupulous dealers may take advantage of their customers in that way, I am quite confident that most of them are not acting against their customers. They simply provide liquidity to the market and earn the spread to do so. When they have an excessive exposure to any particular currency, they offset it by hedging in the interbank market or with another dealer. That's basically the same as a floor trader on any exchange.
Getting to the question of how prices get set, the market does that, not the central banks. Each individual bank and dealer is actually setting its own price. That might sound a bit strange in that it would create different rates all over the place. The fact of the matter is, however, that prices between dealers and banks are almost always going to be very, very close. There are services such as Reuters where dealer prices are aggregated and presented in data feeds, allowing everyone to know the current (and historical) market rates. Arbitrage trading keeps dealers from quoting prices too far away from each other.
There is also trading in the futures market, and the relatively new currency exchange traded funds (ETFs). The activity there, while only a small fraction of the global market volume, also contributes to keeping prices in line across the board.
John Forman is author of The Essentials of Trading (Wiley - April 2006), and a near 20 year veteran of trading and analyzing the markets. For more information on forex trading, check out John's free forex guide which will answer your questions about the currency market. Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=John_Forman |
posted by currency-forex-online-trading14727 @ 8:00 PM,
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Commodity Futures Trading - Why It's Not For Average Investors
If you don't mind losing $5,000 in 10 minutes, you may enjoy trading commodity futures contracts. There's an old saying among commodity traders: "It's easy to make a small fortune in commodities. Just start with a large fortune!" This is not a business for people who are emotionally attached to their money, yet thousands of average "investors" get lured into the commodity markets year after year. Why? Because of the possibility of making high percentage gains using the built-in leverage that is available to commodity futures traders.
The commodity markets include wheat, corn, soybeans, pork-bellies, gold, silver, heating oil, lumber, and numerous other common trade items. The huge companies that operate in these markets use commodity "futures" contracts to lock in their selling prices for the product in advance of delivery. This practice is called "hedging." On the other side of that transaction is the trader, who speculates on whether the priced of the commodity will go up or down before the contract is due for delivery. Because futures contracts may be purchased using leverage, these financial instruments lend themselves to speculation.
For example, control of a corn contract worth $5,000 may only requrie $500 of actual cash, or 10% of the face value of the contract. If the corn goes up in value, and the contract becomes worth, say, $5,500, the speculator has made $500 on his or her original $500, for a 100% return. Compare this with the regular stock market, which limits leverage to 50%, so that $5,000 worth of stock requires a minimum of $2,500 of capital. If the stock goes up to $5,500 in value, the $500 gain is against $2,500 invested, for a return of "only" 20%. The1C48 100% return sure looks a lot better, right?
You can easily see why investors in search of quick gains are hypnotized by the lure of big profits using maximum leverage in commodity futures trading. The real problem, however, is that the leverage works in BOTH DIRECTIONS. You can lose your entire investment in a matter of minutes due to the wild price gyrations that sometimes occur in these volatile markets. Let's say the $5,000 contract drops to $4,000 in value instead of increasing. You've not only lost the original $500 you put into the contract, but an additional $500. You can go broke quickly this way.
So why do people play this game? Average investors do not wake up in the morning and say to themselves, "Right, I think I'll start trading commodities." What happens is, they receive a sales pitch from a commodity trading "guru" claiming to have a "system" for generating sure-fire profits in these wild markets. These "systems" range in price from $25 all the way up to $5,000 or more, and are sold based on the promise of "huge profits" from a small starting investment.
Newsletter writers or commodity gurus regularly pitch the myth about turning $5,000 into a million bucks in less than a year. The typical commodity system pitch comes in a long sales letter or booklet that describes a method for winning on "9 out of 10" trades or similar inflated claims.
Of course, if it was possible to correctly trade 90% of the time, a person could easily amass millions of dollars in a very short period of time. So why are these guys so eager for you to spend $195 on their super-duper trading course? Because they probably aren't making any real money with their own trading program! There's much safer money to be made selling others on the idea of getting into commodity futures trading.
There is no sure-fire way to consistently make money in these markets, simply because the underlying commodity prices can swing wildly back and forth depending on a complex set of variables, many of which are totally unpredictable. That's why the only people consistently making money in the commodity markets are the brokers, who collect a commission for executing the trade regardless of whether it wins or loses. There are also a handful of successful professional traders who make a living in these markets. But the vast majority of people who dabble in commodity futures lose money.
Unfortunately, with the lure of huge returns and easy money, a fresh crop of innocent traders enters the market each year, only to be quickly fleeced out of their money. Don't be one of them! Leave commodity futures trading to the professionals and stick with the more boring forms of investment, such as mutual fund investing or stocks and bonds.
Charles J. Phelan has been helping consumers become debt-free without bankruptcy since 1997. A former senior executive with one of the nation's largest debt settlement firms, he is the author of the Debt Elimination Success Seminar, a five-hour audio-CD course that teaches consumers how to choose between debt program options based on their financial situation. The course focuses on comprehensive instruction in do-it-yourself debt negotiation & settlement designed to save $1,000s. Personal coaching and follow-up support is included. Achieves the same results as professional firms for a tiny fraction of the cost. http://www.zipdebt.com Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Charles_Phelan |  |
posted by currency-forex-online-trading14727 @ 7:59 PM,
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